Polymarket Asked To Work With Us. We Exposed Their Scam Instead.

products and companies should be evaluated on what they do the majority of the time not what their potential is so let me put it to you this way imagine i've made a machine with a big red button when you press the button nine times out of 10 this machine punches you directly in the face one out of 10 times it feeds you a cookie have i made a nice cookie machine or is this just a machine that punches you in the face

the cost of financializing everything can be seen in this one quote from the kashy subreddit took a loan of 2,000 had a thousand to my name went all in had a pretty good five days run lost everything what should i do rent phone bill everything is coming in a few days i tried taking the risk to move my mom out and make her proud but i have failed her and myself

but hey you know what some people will get paid for this how many people exactly well one analysis showed that 0.04% of traders were capturing nearly 70% of the profits doesn't exactly sound like the democratization of finance as we know it

for these markets to be truth machines to get the most accurate predictions they actually kind of need insider trading take a look at this market for example what will happen before the video game grand theft auto six is released a lot of people know the answer to these questions people who work on drake or rihanna's teams or who work for their record labels maybe you work at openai and you know the release date for gpt six you should probably place a big bet and get some money for that knowledge the markets are meant to price the probability of the event so they incentivize people who have high conviction people who have insider information to come collect their bounty by placing big bets on sure things placing these bets pushes probability in the right direction making the prediction market more accurate because you know the answer but it also means in a lot of cases these markets are inherently unfair

and the way that ceo tarek mansour promoted it is one of the most blatant examples of their direct appeal to working people ninety minutes left to attempt generational wealth that's the ceo of an online casino saying you owe it to your grandchildren to place bets at a time when americans are making early withdrawals from their retirement accounts at record rates

so when you go on polymarket or kalshi you assume there's some system in place that is assuring that the bet you are making is not rigged but all of the bets on government action are rigged because somebody in government knows the outcome many of the the other bets are rigged as well because there's a handful of very powerful people who know the answer to that question and are pushing the markets in one direction his stance was that these rigged markets ones where thousands of people know the outcomes shouldn't be traded at all

for the other 99.96% it's the same thing every day i end up winning four or five bets and then once i build my value i make one bet that changes it all back to the beginning have lost like $25,000 on sports betting how do i fix this long story short i had an unexpected financial emergency and i'm really short rent money and really desperate does anyone have a low money under $20 high payoff bet with a strong chance bet i can tail thanks i started pretty irresponsibly and so here i am at minus 14 k but i'm confident if i stay disciplined i'll make it out

this is doctor robin hanson seen by many as the godfather of modern prediction markets held up by the polymarket ceo as the expert in a prediction market there aren't investors it's the betting market we create the prediction market in order to learn things about the company if the main purpose is to get more accurate prices then basically we want as many insiders as we could insiders is great please insider trading it's just not really an issue for prediction markets

prediction markets aren't even as accurate as they advertise the the most interesting example recently is the february jobs report they forecasted 60,000 jobs would be added in in february guess what job report was down they weren't even close they're like a delta of a 150,000 jobs take a look at this recent study out of vanderbilt university that looked at prediction markets in the twenty twenty four election while 93% of predicted markets correctly predicted outcomes better than chance accuracy fell to 78% on cauchy and 67% on polymarket so the polymarket ceo was on sixty minutes taking a victory lap and the markets on his platform were barely better than a coin flip

i mean what about this guy who sat outside the super bowl rehearsals with a listening device so he could time how long national anthem would be before betting on prediction markets is he an insider i mean i know he's literally outside of the stadium but in this case he had information that the public didn't have

prediction market is where you trade on outcomes of events in the real world yes or no simple as that where you can bet on who's going to win election is it kamala harris or is it donald trump who's going to win tonight's basketball game the lakers or the knicks it is that times a thousand anything that could happen will there be more than 12 inches of snow in new york tomorrow cauchy for instance all contracts are a dollar if something is $50.50 you're buying a contract for 50¢ somebody is buying the other side of your contract for 50¢ at the end one of you gets a dollar the idea here is that the current market price is the probability the event will happen

the difference between the words investing and gambling is a difference of billions of dollars if i'm tarek mansour why do i absolutely want to be regulated by the cftc and not by say the new york state gambling commission well that's a no brainer because you don't pay taxes to the state the cftc just exists to like here you can do markets do what you want you know there's regulation around that but if you're a state regulated sportsbook in new york you're paying a 51% tax you have to pay a licensing fee to offer a sportsbook in that state and then multiply that by every state that has sports betting that's been legalized regulated sports books have to do something on problem gambling